Decomposing life expectancy changes in Spain in the COVID-19 pandemic and post-pandemic periods
Background
The COVID-19 pandemic caused a marked decline in life expectancy at birth across Western Europe in 2020, with recovery observed only by 2023. Spain, despite being one of the hardest-hit nations, continues to maintain the highest life expectancy within the European Union. This study aims to analyze the changes in Spain's life expectancy between 2019 and 2023 by identifying age-specific and cause-of-death contributions, and comparing these with patterns seen during the earlier, pre-pandemic decade (2010–2019).
Methods
Data on life expectancy and age-specific mortality rates by major causes of death were sourced from the Spanish National Institute for Statistics (INE) for 2010, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023. The Arriaga decomposition method was applied to estimate the contribution of each age group to variations in life expectancy, while these contributions were proportionally assigned to leading causes of death.
Results
- People older than 20 years showed negative effects on life expectancy in 2020, but most age groups contributed positively in the following years.
- Paradoxically, the age groups most affected in 2020 became positive contributors to overall life expectancy recovery between 2019 and 2023.
- Individuals under 45 years continue to show negative contributions to life expectancy.
- Infectious diseases drove the pronounced decline in 2020, reducing life expectancy by 1.33 years in the total population. The reduction was stronger among men (−1.43 years) than among women (−1.16 years).
“Infectious diseases were the main contributor to the sharp drop in life expectancy in 2020, accounting for −1.33 years in the total population.”
Author’s summary
Spain’s life expectancy fell sharply in 2020 due to infectious diseases but rebounded by 2023, highlighting both resilience among older age groups and lingering challenges for younger cohorts.