New Jersey Is Still a Swing State in the Making
Even after a difficult Tuesday, statistical trends continue to favor the Republican Party in New Jersey. Building a campaign means predicting the number of votes necessary for victory, a process that relies on historical data and current enthusiasm rather than pure science.
Many external forces—such as national crises, economic downturns, or unpopular federal policies—can alter the outcome of state races. What distinguishes effective campaigns is their ability to shift focus to local issues or to meet strategic vote targets despite broader political winds. Nassau County in 2025 serves as a recent example of this dynamic.
Jack Ciattarelli’s campaign for governor wasn’t perfect, but he assembled enough votes to win the governorship of New Jersey in any election since 1973—except for 2025.
Ciattarelli received more votes than any other New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate in the last fifty years, positioning the state as a genuine battleground for future contests.
Author’s Summary
New Jersey, long seen as reliably blue, now shows clear signs of becoming a true swing state as Republican vote totals steadily rise despite recent setbacks.