Red, Blue, or Neither? The Changing Color of Florida Politics
For decades, Florida leaned toward the Democratic Party. Then it turned into a key swing state. Now more than 40 percent of registered voters align with Republicans. Yet experts suggest the state might not be as deeply red as statistics imply.
Two-Party Dominance and Its Origins
The divide between Democrats and Republicans has solidified over time. This structure took firm shape between 1824 and 1840. While Independents, Libertarians, and unaffiliated voters exist, the grip of the two major parties remains strong.
According to the Pew Research Center, it has been over 50 years since a third-party candidate won any state in a U.S. presidential election. In Florida, the last time that occurred was in 1848, when Zachary Taylor of the Whig Party claimed the presidency.
Florida’s Political Evolution
The Sunshine State remained reliably Democratic for decades after the Civil War. However, election maps began changing, and some contests still swing blue at local levels, indicating the state’s political picture is far from uniform.
Between 1972 and 2020, Democrats held a registration edge in Florida. But in 2021, Republicans overtook them and have since widened that lead, shaping a new political reality.
Voices of Change
“I haven't changed that much, but I feel like the party has,” said Teri H., a Florida native who grew up Republican. “And, you know, the party kind of abandoned me.”
Teri, who asked not to be identified by last name for fear of workplace retaliation, joined the military before attending the University of North Florida, where he led the College Republicans. Today, his perspective reflects shifting loyalties within the GOP’s traditional base.
Summary
Florida’s political identity keeps evolving—once blue, now red, yet still dotted with shades of purple that reveal a complex and changing electorate.